Grand National Winning Trends

In a race where there are 40 runners and 30 fences for the runners to scale, it pays to narrow the field down, by looking at previous trends.  There are a number of different factors to consider when you look for the winner.

Weight

Last year’s winner Tiger Roll carried 10 stone 13 pounds to victory.  In the last 6 running’s of the race, only one winner Many Clouds, has carried more than 11 stone.  Since Red Rum won the National in 1977, only five winners have carried in excess of 11 stone, so you may want to rule out horses carrying more than that. 22 of the last 28 winners carried 10 stone 13 lbs or less.

Age

Age is an interesting statistic to look at in the Grand National.  Traditionally, it has paid to back older horses aged 9 and over, with only 6 winners of the race aged under 9 since Red Rum won for the first time at the age of eight, 46 years ago in 1973.  

However, three of the last four winners have been aged 8, so this is a trend to be wary of.  It is highly unlikely you will find a winner younger than 8, with the last seven year old to win the race being Bogskar in 1940!

9 of the last 16 winners were aged ten, eleven or twelve. All the last 14 winners were aged between 8 and 11.

Match Fitness

One statistic to definitely watch out for is the number of days since the horse’s last run. It take a fit horse to win a race of this magnitude and 27 of the last 28 winners ran within the last 55 days. 22 of the last 28 had run in the last 34 days.

Distance

Look at the horse’s previous races.  Stamina is a must.  14 of the last 15 winner had previously won over a distance of 3 miles or more. 24 of the last 26 winners had previously won a 3 mile chase. Nine of the last ten winners had previously finished in the top three in a race over at least 3 miles 2 furlongs. 

Odds

There is a reason why odds are as they are.  Nine of the last 16 winners have come from the top eight in the market.  That doesn’t mean you should exclude higher priced horses from your thinking.  Its only ten years since Mon Mome won at odds of 100-1.  There have been subsequent winners at 66-1, 33-1 and two at 25-1.

Jumping Ability

With thirty fences to jump, the Grand National is a race for seasoned steeplechasers.  Look for runners who have run 10-14 times over fences before winning the National. 18 of the past 20 winners had fallen or unseated their rider no more than two times in their entire career.  Look out for previous experience over the Aintree fences in races like the Becher Chase and the Topham Chase.

Grand National Trends at a glance (Last 28 Running’s)

27/28 – Ran  55 days ago or less
27/28 – Officially rating of 137 or higher
26/28 – Had won over at least 3 mile chase before
25/28 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences 
23/28 – Aged nine or older
22/28 – Ran  34 days ago or less
22/28 – Carried no more than 10 stone 13 lbs 
19/28 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences 
17/28 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
17/28 – Aged 10 years-old or less
16/28 – Carried 10 stone 8 lbs or less
15/28 – Placed favourites
15/28 – Irish-bred winners

How to place a bet on the Grand National

Bet to win

There are two main ways to place a bet on the Grand National.  The first is known as a win bet.  This is pretty self explanatory, in that you are placing a bet on the horse you have selected to win the race.  For example, with a £5 win bet, you are placing £5 on a specific horse to win the Grand National.  If the odds on there horse were 10-1 and the horse won, you would receive £50 back (£5 x 10), plus your original stake of £5.  So you would get back £55 in total.

Each-Way Bets

The other main type of bet is known as an each-way bet.  With an each-way bet. you are placing half your total stake on the horse to win the the race. The other half of your stake goes on it achieving a place.  The number of places that qualify, depends on the type of race and the number of horses taking part.  For the Grand National, bookmakers will normally pay out the place element of an each way bet on at least 4 places.  These days it is not uncommon to see bookmakers pay out on the first 6 or 7 places, so it can pay to shop around.  

With an each-way bet, the second half of your stake is placed on the horse to win the race.  The place element of the bet is paid out at a fraction of the odds offered.  Typically for the Grand National, this is 1/4 or 1/5 of the odds.

So, if you place a £5 each-way bet you are staking £10 in total.  If you place that bet at odds of 20-1 with a place paying 1/5 of the odds, and your horse finishes 3rd, you would expect to receive £20 (£5 x 20 x 1/5), plus the place part of your original stake i.e. £5.  This would mean a return of £25 in total.

How to Bet Online

It is very simple to place a bet through an online bookmaker.  First, you need to open an account, by making a deposit via a debit or credit card, and then you can start placing bets. Simply select the race you want to bet on, select the horse you want to back and the type of bet and your stake.  Most online bookmaker sites will default to a win bet, with a box to tick if you want to back the horse each-way.  Take care to place the bet correctly.  If you make a mistake, the bookmaker is not going to refund your stake.

REMEMBER – if you back a horse each-way you are effectively doubling your stake.

On a race like the Grand National with up to 40 runners taking part, an each-way bet is a very popular type of bet.

Other Bets

There are of course many other types of bet you can place, for example you can have a ‘Place Only‘ bet, where you bet on a horse to get a place, and the entire stake goes on that horse to place at the odds offered.  The odds offered will be less generous than for the horse to win the race, but of course the chances of the horse achieving a place are higher than the chances of the horse winning the race.

Whatever type of bet you decide to place, good luck!  Check out our betting offers below.